We may soon be nearing global release for Apple Vision Pro. According to a report from independent tech analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, US demand for the $3,500 mixed reality headset has slowed over the past month, however the company may be ramping production above original estimates thanks to better-than-expected market performance.

According to Kuo, who has been one of the key figures in Apple supply chain analysis, US shipments of Vision Pro are projected to account for 200,000–250,000 units this year, which is better than Apple’s alleged estimate of 150,000–200,000 units in the US.

Kuo maintains that over the past month “several small-capacity suppliers have expanded production from 500,000–600,000 units to 700,000–800,000 units this year,” pointing to the headset’s unexpectedly high popularity among prosumers and developers.

Apple Vision Pro | Image courtesy Apple

Granted, that doesn’t mean Vision Pro is coming to the global market immediately, as the company will likely still need to build stocks to avoid the sort of long waiting times seen immediately after its US launch earlier this month. Kuo however predicts Apple may launch in more countries sometime before WWDC this year, which is historically held in the first week of June.

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“Due to the limited demand growth in the U.S. market, advancing the global release schedule is favorable when the supply improves,” Kuo says. “The actual release time will depend on Apple’s software modification schedule to comply with other countries’ regulations.”

Meanwhile, a cast of competitors are looking to fill the Apple-proven niche with their own high-quality ‘Pro’ level MR headsets. Last year Samsung announced it was partnering with Google to make its own MR headset, which was reportedly delayed in efforts to make it more competitive with Vision Pro.

More recently, Meta announced it was working with LG to ostensibly manufacture what could be a Quest Pro 2, which would better compete with Vision Pro than either Quest 3 or Quest Pro.

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Scott Hayden
Well before the first modern XR products hit the market, Scott recognized the potential of the technology and set out to understand and document its growth. He has been professionally reporting on the space for nearly a decade as Editor at Road to VR, authoring more than 3,500 articles on the topic. Scott brings that seasoned insight to his reporting from major industry events across the globe.

  • Of course they were successful.
    It’s pricey but covetable.
    And Vision won’t be nearly as dear.
    []^ )

  • Well, the success of the Vision Pro was very predictable considering the hype that there was around it…

    • Christian Schildwaechter

      According to a lot of comments, AVP was bound to be a total failure due to not focusing on gaming, and the cardinal sin of not including controllers.

      • starlord

        People tend to forget very quickly once the narrative turns out to be not in their favor ;-)

        • Christian Schildwaechter

          I got pounded after the Horizon Workrooms announcement for saying that Meta’s product line was missing a matching professional HMD not requiring a personal Facebook login, probably priced above USD 1000 similar to the existing Quest 2 business edition. Because Meta would never release a non-gaming HMD, and would never charge more than USD 700 for a Quest Pro.

          Got another beating for defending Bloomberg’s report that PSVR2 pre-orders were disappointing and pointing out that Sony’s counter statement was a non-denial denial, not even addressing what Bloomberg had said. Because PSVR2 was a great success and the Bloomberg reporter a lying scumbag just trying to sabotage Sony. Also wasted a lot of time typing comments that Apple, only caring about AR, would not release a VR focused HMD, and that there are other viable use cases for XR besides gaming, or endlessly repeating that eye tracking hardware actually isn’t expensive.

          I now regularly see posts stating these things were so obvious that nobody should act surprised.

      • Arno van Wingerde

        I trust Apple’s marketing… but still this is a fraction of Quest2 sales. I do not see this as a consumer’s device, so sales’ numbers are not all that relevant. Much more interesting is how many users keep using it beyond the first few months and how many apps this thing will get, other than the 1 million or so 2D apps that I can also get on my phone or iPad.

        • Christian Schildwaechter

          There are Apple internal estimates saying it may take up to four hardware generations to finally get Apple Vision to become a proper consumer device, selling in huge numbers. The current AVP is still very much a (very polished) prototype, crammed full of expensive tech just enough to reach what Apple considers the basic acceptable user experience.

          For that it is quite astonishing how quickly people adapted it for actual productivity use. Of course only time will tell if this sticks or is just another short term honey moon phase, after which the lack of comfort will drive people back to phones and laptops. But in contrast to some rather sensationalist news, supply chain sources report that the return rate for the very expensive AVP so far is only about 1%, similar to other Apple devices.